The New England Patriots aren’t just winning—they’re building a playoff machine. At 10-2, they’ve seized the top seed in the AFC as Week 13 kicked off with a Thanksgiving Day slate that could reshape the entire postseason landscape. Meanwhile, the Los Angeles Rams sit at 9-2 atop the NFC, their defense holding firm while the battle for wild-card spots turns into a three-team free-for-all. The twist? Four teams with losing records still have a mathematical shot at the playoffs—and one game could erase them all.
Who’s In, Who’s Out, and Who’s Holding Their Breath
The AFC playoff picture is a tangled knot. The Denver Broncos (9-2) and Indianapolis Colts (8-3) are locked in as division leaders, but the real chaos is happening below. The Los Angeles Chargers, Jacksonville Jaguars, and Buffalo Bills are all tied at 7-4, fighting for the final two wild-card spots. And here’s the kicker: the Kansas City Chiefs, Pittsburgh Steelers, and Houston Texans are all at 6-5. That’s right—the defending Super Bowl champs are barely clinging to relevance, one loss away from falling behind three teams with worse records.Meanwhile, the AFC North is a mess. The Pittsburgh Steelers lead the division at 6-5, but the Baltimore Ravens (6-5) are right behind them. The Ravens’ playoff fate hinges on tiebreakers—and they’ve lost the head-to-head to Pittsburgh. That means if both finish 7-5, the Steelers get the division title. The Ravens? They’ll need a wild-card lifeline. And don’t count out the Cincinnati Bengals or Cleveland Browns just yet. Both are 3-8, but with six games left, math doesn’t lie: if the Chargers, Jaguars, and Bills stumble, those teams could crawl back in.
NFC North: A Three-Way Tug-of-War
If you thought the AFC was messy, wait until you see the NFC North. The Chicago Bears (8-3), Detroit Lions (7-4), and Green Bay Packers (7-3-1) are all alive. And it’s not just hope—it’s logic. Bleacher Report spelled it out: if the Bears beat the Lions on Thanksgiving, the loser of that game is out of the wild-card race. But here’s the real drama: if the San Francisco 49ers lose to the Cleveland Browns on Sunday, all three NFC North teams could qualify. Yes, all three. That’s never happened in the modern era. The Packers currently hold the No. 6 seed, but they’re just one tiebreaker away from being the odd team out.And it’s not just the North. The Seattle Seahawks (8-3), San Francisco 49ers (8-4), and Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-5) are all jockeying for positioning. The Carolina Panthers (7-5) and Detroit Lions (7-4) are the closest challengers. But the Lions’ path is narrower: they’ve lost to both the Bears and Packers this season. Lose again, and they’re done.
Thanksgiving’s Ripple Effect
The Thanksgiving games weren’t just about turkey and stuffing. They were playoff elimination trials. The Chicago Bears hosted the Detroit Lions—a game that could decide whether one of them gets a ticket to January. The Dallas Cowboys (5-5-1) faced the Las Vegas Raiders (2-9). A win for Dallas keeps them alive; a loss? They’re all but out. And the Washington Commanders (3-8) hosted the New York Giants—a matchup that felt like a battle for pride more than playoff positioning. But even here, the math matters: if the Commanders win, they stay within one game of the Minnesota Vikings and Atlanta Falcons at 4-7. That’s not much, but in a league this unpredictable, it’s enough.The Los Angeles Rams didn’t play Thursday, but their lead in the NFC is slipping. The Philadelphia Eagles (8-3) are breathing down their necks. And if the 49ers lose? The Rams could find themselves as the No. 2 seed instead of No. 1. That matters. Home-field advantage isn’t just a perk—it’s a lifeline in January.
What’s Next? The Final Four Weeks
With just four games left, every matchup carries the weight of elimination. The Patriots face the Tennessee Titans and Buffalo Bills in their final two games. A loss to Buffalo could cost them the top seed. The Chargers play the Denver Broncos and Kansas City Chiefs—two teams they’re tied with in the standings. One win? They’re in. Two losses? They’re out.The Packers have a brutal stretch: the Minnesota Vikings, Baltimore Ravens, and Detroit Lions. One slip, and their playoff dream ends. The Bears get the Green Bay Packers and New Orleans Saints—two winnable games, but only if their defense stays sharp. The 49ers face the Arizona Cardinals and Seattle Seahawks. A loss to Seattle? That could be the death knell.
Why This Matters
This isn’t just about who makes the playoffs. It’s about how unpredictable the NFL has become. No team is safe. No record is sacred. The Chiefs at 6-5? They’re still in. The Raiders at 2-9? They’re not mathematically out. That’s the beauty—and the brutality—of the league. Teams that looked dead a month ago are now alive. Teams that looked untouchable are now vulnerable.And for fans? It’s the most thrilling time of the year. Every snap, every turnover, every fourth-down decision could be the difference between a playoff berth and another offseason of "what if?"
Frequently Asked Questions
Can a team with a losing record still make the playoffs?
Yes. In the AFC, the Kansas City Chiefs, Pittsburgh Steelers, and Houston Texans are all 6-5 and still in contention. In the NFC, the Dallas Cowboys (5-5-1) and Washington Commanders (3-8) remain mathematically alive. With six games left, even teams at .500 or below can sneak in if top teams stumble.
What happens if the San Francisco 49ers lose to the Cleveland Browns?
If the 49ers lose, the Chicago Bears, Detroit Lions, and Green Bay Packers could all qualify for the playoffs—even though two of them are in the same division. That’s never happened in the NFC’s current format. It would require the Bears to beat the Lions and the Packers to beat the Vikings, while the 49ers fall.
Why is the AFC Wild Card race so chaotic?
Three teams—the Chargers, Jaguars, and Bills—are tied at 7-4. The Chiefs, Steelers, and Texans are just one game back. Tiebreakers are already being calculated: head-to-head, division record, conference record. A single win in Week 14 could flip the entire order.
Who has the easiest path to the playoffs?
The New England Patriots and Los Angeles Rams have the clearest paths. Both are division leaders with double-digit wins and favorable remaining schedules. The Patriots face only one team currently above .500 (the Bills), and the Rams’ toughest remaining game is against the Seattle Seahawks—a team they’ve already beaten this season.
How many teams can make the playoffs from the NFC North?
Up to three. The NFC allows six wild-card teams total, and the division winner is guaranteed a top-four seed. If the Bears, Lions, and Packers all finish with 9-8 or better, and the 49ers lose, all three could qualify. That would be unprecedented in the modern NFL.
What’s the biggest upset that could change everything?
If the Kansas City Chiefs beat the Los Angeles Chargers on Sunday, it would eliminate the Chargers from the top wild-card spot and vault the Chiefs into contention. A loss by the Denver Broncos to the Tennessee Titans could also open the door for the Baltimore Ravens to leapfrog into the No. 3 seed. The ripple effects are massive.